The Dynamic Effects of Weather Shocks on Agricultural Production - Centre de mathématiques appliquées (CMAP)
Pré-Publication, Document De Travail (Working Paper) Année : 2024

The Dynamic Effects of Weather Shocks on Agricultural Production

Résumé

This paper investigates the dynamic effects of weather shocks on monthly agricultural production in Peru, using a Local Projection framework. An adverse weather shock, measured by an excess of heat or rain, always generates a delayed negative downturn in agricultural production. The magnitude and duration of this downturn depend on several factors, including the type of crop and the timing of the shock. On average, a weather shock—a temperature shock—can cause a monthly decline of 5% to 15% in agricultural production. The response exhibit important heterogeneity across time, crop, and season dimensions, with hysteresis suggesting farmers’ adaptation over time. At the macroeconomic level, weather shocks are recessionary and entail a decline in inflation, agricultural production, exports, exchange rate and GDP.
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Dates et versions

halshs-04443037 , version 1 (07-02-2024)
halshs-04443037 , version 2 (22-07-2024)
halshs-04443037 , version 3 (27-11-2024)

Identifiants

  • HAL Id : halshs-04443037 , version 3

Citer

Cédric Crofils, Ewen Gallic, Gauthier Vermandel. The Dynamic Effects of Weather Shocks on Agricultural Production. 2024. ⟨halshs-04443037v3⟩
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